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Blogger's Notes:
Commentary of an Academic
(Copyright @ 2017 by Chester B Cabalza. All Rights Reserved).
Right
after Rodrigo Duterte spontaneously called for an economic and military
“separation” from the United States last October 2016 to the amazement of Xi
Jinping and Beijing spectators during his grand state visit in China, it has
caused bafflement and commotion between Filipino and American policy-makers in
his effort to forge an “independent foreign policy”.
Debates
on the joint military exercises and trade treatises between the oldest allies
in Asia scaled back following the fall of the Peso but it survived a bullish
yet volatile market making the archipelagic nation one of the fastest growing
economies worldwide at the end of the year.
The
mixed reactions of the “separation” found its own niche after Duterte visited
Japan, another US ally, also in the same month weeks after his pivot to China. It
turned out to be a defining moment in his young tenure after beating a momentum
to rising China to balance the equation of power in the region.
Japan
reciprocated the visit in January 2017 when Shinzo Abe, the first Asian and
global leader, to engage with Duterte to promote economic and trade deals with
the Philippines.
Cementing
regional alliances to Asian powerhouses after his strings of successful engagement
in East Asia’s capitals, he has yet to visit the United States after the
remaining superpower elected its new president last November 2016.
The
following month, American President Donald Trump conveyed his invitation for
Duterte to the White House after the Filipino leader reached out to him over a
telephone conversation fresh from his triumph.
Hopes
of reconciliation could appear under a strengthened “Trump of the East” and
“Duterte of the West” bilateral engagement. The two leaders are known for their
shrewd diplomacy and pragmatic positions on various issues.
Re-alignment in the
South China Sea
While
Duterte assured the Asian Argonauts to respect the rule of law amidst unsettled
maritime and territorial disputes, despite the Philippines having won the
landmark case against China decided by the Permanent Court of Arbitration at
The Hague, the giant neighbor visibly holds the high ground in the militarized
contested resource-rich artificial islands.
Apparent
concessions were made by Beijing after Duterte’s visit to China to allow
Filipino fishermen resume activities in their traditional fishing ground as a
warm-up in the revived bilateral relations.
Chinese
vessels quietly left the shoal since the 2012 standoff between the two
parties.
While
the Philippines has officially launched its chairmanship of the 2017 ASEAN
summit this month with vested interest to set the agenda, coinciding with the
regional block’s golden anniversary. It is expected that the future of the
South China Sea will become a hot item and forum for debates among scholars,
strategists, and regional leaders.
Hence
the increased power play of major powers in the region may be seen and felt; ASEAN
nations must grab this momentum to confess a joint communiqué to pursue a peaceful
settlement for the Panama Canal of the 21st century.
However,
without a clear US policy from the Trump administration, perhaps reversing
Obama’s pivot to Asia spelled out in the “freedom of navigation and overflight”
principle, a rigid 180-degree turn huffed from Secretary of State’s Rex
Tillerson may lead to a clash of the titans in the highly-disputed waters of
the South China Sea.
To
de-escalate tensions in the region, major actors must forge US-China-ASEAN
Summit to mutually set dialogues among leaders in paving way for confidence
building.
The
South China Sea conundrum becomes a litmus test for the US on its control in
the region as a hegemon. Failure to sustain military prowess and economic
influence over small and medium powers will backfire on its global position as
the world’s police, nonetheless, paving more way to China’s rightful
position.
Contest of power
While
Trump’s position on alliances remains to be tested, as expressed during his recent
inauguration, to seek friendship and goodwill with the nations worldwide
emphasizing to put first each nation’s own interests, his robust pronouncement
underscores a strong protectionist policy.
For
Duterte, his nine-months in the office certainly placed him in the world’s
limelight with his unbending “War on Drugs” amidst increasing extrajudicial
killings.
In
his stint as Philippine president, he made radical geopolitical shifts: firstly,
by engaging with China while derecognizing the importance of the PCA’s decision
to save face the Chinese leaders; and secondly, a forceful partnership with
Russia is in the making pursuing closer economic and security ties by forging a
probable defense pact.
By early January, Russian navy deployed two warships to the Philippines and promised
to donate brand-new military equipment to one of Asia’s fragile armed forces.
Duterte will make a state visit to Moscow by second quarter of the year and a
warm engagement with his “idol” Vladimir Putin will certainly fortify an
elevated partnership.
Duterte
has indicated his advancement to Russia after being denied weapons and
criticized in the US media for his controversial War on Drugs.
The
infusion of modern weapons from Russia might answer the Philippines’ failed
attempts to modernize its armed forces. After reverting back to its strategy
from territorial defense operation to internal security operation, his fight
against narcotics and terrorism has become a banner defense and security
policy.
The
Philippines strongman seems to diversify his relations with great powers in the
Asia-Pacific region.The tide of fortune works for Duterte’s favor while he
accumulates surplus from his astute vision. However, it could be construed as a
mendicant handicap becoming a receiver of aids and promises from major powers.
In
the foreseen competition of powers in the region, are partnerships to emerging
powers become a “new normal” undermining an archaic alliance to a former big
brother? Or has the US power now dispensable in the region?
In
that case, the US should offer alternative mechanisms to strengthen the armed
forces of the Philippines magnified through defence treaties and brace the
position of ASEAN on a rules-based norms approach, doubling its efforts as
China and Russia accelerate economic and military packages at the expense of
their own interests.