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| Photo from US State Department |
By Chester B Cabalza
Blogger's Notes:
Commentary of an Academic
(Copyright @ 2018 by Chester B Cabalza. All Rights Reserved).
After
the historic proclamation of Xi Jinping’s indefinite presidential term-limit approved
in the recently concluded National People’s Congress, the current Chinese
president may now surpass his predecessors and reshape what the Chinese
paramount leaders may have envisioned for China to achieve the Chinese Dream.
Since the birth of the Communist Party of China in Shanghai, the ruling party
becomes the source of all political power that exudes all the exclusive right
to legitimize and control all other political organizations. It alone
determines the economic, social, and political goals for the society, mostly
controlled by the Chinese elites, who themselves are leaders of the party
hierarchy.
Last
month’s assertion of Filipino President Rodrigo Duterte on sovereignty rights
over the islands in the South China Sea, while he single-handedly recognized
the nomenclature as the West Philippine Sea before the Chinese-Filipino
businessmen, it strikes a resounding review on his external security policy
after three biggest reefs in the Fiery Cross, Mischief, and Subi around the
Spratly archipelago are obviously manned now by the People’s Liberation Army
Navy; cognizant of the shifting geopolitical tussle of major powers in the
Indo-Pacific rim.
Despite
the apparent warming relationship of Beijing and Manila under the Xi-Duterte
regimes which can be construed as a bittersweet brotherhood union since the burial
of the Sulu Muslim monarch Paduka Batara in 1471 in present-day Dezhou in China;
and although Manila houses the world’s oldest Chinatown in Binondo, the giant neighbour
still gets the upper hand in today’s China-Philippines bilateral relationship.
But as President Xi Jinping acquires more wealth and power, what will be China’s
defense relationship with the Philippines?
Xi
Jinping’s aggressive modernization of the People’s Liberation Army came to be
realized for the national reunification of its maritime and territorial islands
putting in place Chinese military under heavy pressure in securing the continental
country and its border areas. A decision to strengthen the reform of China’s
national defense and armed forces were adopted at the Third Plenary Session of
the 18th Central Committee of the Party. Under President Xi, China’s
defense budget has increased by double digits nearly every year making China
the world’s second largest military spender as it becomes proactive in ocean
filling and infrastructure building carrying out the Anti-Access Area Denial
(A2/AD) and Island Chain strategies.
China’s
economic prowess will be fully realized by 2050 based on the strong macroeconomic
indicators predicted by economic think tanks. Its current strategic rank in the
hierarchy of strongest nations was paved way since Mao Zedong dominated the “First
Generation” leadership of the People’s Republic of China. Deng Xiaoping and his
cohorts defined the “Second Generation” as China opened up its economy to the
world. Jiang Zemin spearheaded China’s peaceful development under the “Third
Generation” stabilizing China’s post-Tiananmen economic reforms posting a
consistent economic growth trajectory. Hu Jintao’s peaceful rise and harmonious
society consolidated the “Fourth Generation” considering the “Fifth Generation”
manuevered by Xi Jinping who will no doubt lead an army of confident Chinese
dreamers. Apparently, the five charismatic and enigmatic paramount leaders of
China have led the world’s most populous nation to its Manifest Destiny as it
prepares for the party’s centennial celebration by 2049 since the Chinese Communist
theoretically founded its latest political dynasty in 1949, transferring the
seat of power to Beijing.
The
Mao-Deng extreme leadership values differ as the first leader laid the ground
on political reforms for 27 years while the latter plotted economic reforms for
14 years. Three decades ago, the People’s Liberation Army was considered a
boxer suffering from ‘short arms and slow
feet’ but its inferiority complex was holistically transformed by President
Jiang Zemin by modernizing China’s armed forces, the same period when President
Fidel Ramos proposed for the modernization program of the Philippines’ armed
forces, fostered by the two leaders’ karaoke diplomacy.
Hu
Jintao’s concept of the army’s functions goes beyond traditional tasks and
embodied the role of armed forces to provide substantial force to ensure the
consolidation of the ruling party status to provide strong security backing for
China’s development. Aggressively the People’s Liberation Army Navy made a
strategic shift from ‘coastal defines’ or land land-focused to ‘offshore defines’
or ocean-focused strategy, a shift that prepared them from safeguarding their
shores in the seas off the Chinese littoral to perform a mix of sea and area
denials by flexing global power projection that Xi Jingping is on the forefront
to make that vision into a mission.
Now that China,
a new naval power under Xi Jinxing is resurging, the Philippines should not be
complacent of the status quo and current asymmetrical bilateral defense with
the giant neighbour. China’s domineering attitude can be summed up to Sun Tzu’s
wisdom on the importance of self-knowledge and of knowledge of one’s enemies. With
the ambiguous security environment especially when external defense provides a
severe shock that invalidates prevailing assumptions, it can be construed that
most of the time, the Philippine strategy is a reflection of reactive policy
decisions rather than a well-defined national security strategy based on
foresight and appreciation in the evolving regional and global security
landscape.
